CrowdStrike is not sitting under the sell-side average. Nasdaq’s official close on Friday 2 October 2026 was $270.04 at 4:00 p.m. ET. A Nasdaq premarket print at 5:37 a.m. ET on 5 October was $269.62, and it is not the price used below. On StockAnalysis, the S&P Global average of 53 targets was $235.67 as of a 2 October update, 12.73% under that close. The high target on the same page is $300.
The offset is management’s arithmetic, not another broker note. In the 26 August 2026 earnings release, CrowdStrike raised fiscal 2027 net-new ARR growth by 630 basis points, to 34% at the midpoint, and set year-end ARR at $6,603.0 million to $6,611.9 million. The midpoint is $6,607.45 million. Add $4,267.6 million of net cash at 31 July 2026, divide by the 1,044 million diluted shares in that outlook, and the multiple does the rest. At 56 times the unrounded price is $358.51, a $359 bull case. At 37 times, $238. At 18 times, $118. $359 is above the $300 high on the sheet. $118 is below Bernstein’s $132.
Key facts
- Official close $270.04 on 2 October 2026 at 4:00 p.m. ET. Nasdaq premarket print $269.62 at 5:37 a.m. ET on 5 October 2026, from Nasdaq. Scenarios use the close.
- Second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue was $1.471 billion, up 26%. ARR was $5,841.4 million at 31 July 2026, up 25%, in the Form 10-Q filed 27 August 2026.
- Fiscal 2027 ending ARR is guided at $6,603.0 million to $6,611.9 million. Net-new ARR growth is 34% at the midpoint, a 630 basis point raise, from the 26 August release.
- Cash was $5,013.8 million and long-term debt $746.2 million at 31 July 2026, so net cash is $4,267.6 million. The fiscal 2027 outlook uses 1,044 million diluted shares.
- S&P Global on StockAnalysis, updated 2 October 2026: average target $235.67, median $245, low $132, high $300, across 53 analysts. September ratings were 30 strong buy, 10 buy, 12 hold and one sell.
- This note on the $270.04 close: bull $359 at 56 times fiscal 2027 ARR, base $238 at 37 times, bear $118 at 18 times. The close itself embeds 42.0 times.
What’s happening
The split-adjusted tape is a drawdown and then a rerating. Nasdaq daily closes from 1 October 2025 through 2 October 2026 start at $124.99, bottom at $87.56 on 24 February 2026, and finish at $270.04, the high close in that 253-session set. That is up 116.1% from 1 October 2025 and up 208.4% from the February low close. The 2 October session opened at $269.50, hit $273.54 and traded down to $267.67.
The 10-Q says CrowdStrike announced a four-for-one Class A stock dividend on 3 June 2026, paid after the close on 1 July to holders of record on 25 June, and restates historical share counts. Nasdaq’s series does not gap that week: 1 July closed at $193.19 and 2 July at $193.98. The chart is split-adjusted. Four times $87.56 is about $350.25, the pre-split equivalent of that February close.
The quarter ended 31 July 2026 is what the rerating is leaning on. Revenue was $1,470.9 million, against $1,169.0 million, which the company calls 26%. Subscription revenue was $1,400.3 million, against $1,102.9 million, called 27%. Ending ARR in the 10-Q is $5,841.421 million, against $4,656.682 million, reported as 25% growth. Net new ARR was $332.8 million, against $221.1 million, a 50.5% increase. The release calls it a record $333 million and says growth accelerated to 51%. First-half net new ARR was $588.6 million, against $414.8 million. Falcon Flex ending ARR was more than $2.29 billion, and the release puts that growth at 101%.
GAAP earnings do not describe the equity. The quarter made $5.3 million of GAAP net income, $0.01 diluted, and lost $33.2 million at the operating line. Non-GAAP operating income was $371.6 million and non-GAAP EPS was $0.31, after $399.0 million of stock-based pay and related taxes, 27.1% of revenue. Operating cash flow was $530.3 million and free cash flow was $377.4 million, yet cash fell from $5,230.1 million at 31 January 2026 to $5,013.8 million. That half included $627.9 million of net cash for SGNL.AI, bought on 20 February 2026.
What CrowdStrike and the Street have said
George Kurtz, founder and chief executive, said in the 26 August release: “Q2 was the best quarter in CrowdStrike’s history.” The next lines are the ones that carry a number: “We’re raising our full year fiscal 2027 net new ARR growth outlook by 630 basis points. The Mythos moment translated into mass-market acceptance that AI adoption needs security, and that’s CrowdStrike.” The operational fact is the 630 basis point raise, to a 34% net-new growth midpoint. Take 6.30 points off 34 and the prior midpoint implied by that sentence is 27.7%. That 27.7% is arithmetic, not a reprinted guide.
Burt Podbere, chief financial officer, said: “Given our strong Q2 results and record Q3 pipeline, we are raising our full-year fiscal 2027 net new ARR growth outlook to 34% at the midpoint, positioning us for continued durable, profitable growth.” He said dollar-based gross and net retention increased. The 10-Q says net retention “improved sequentially” as of 31 July and does not print the rate. No rate is guessed here.
The rest of the outlook is narrow. Third-quarter ending ARR is $6,184.4 million to $6,188.4 million. Against the 10-Q’s $5,841.421 million, that implies about $343 million to $347 million of third-quarter net new ARR, versus $332.8 million just reported. Hitting the full-year midpoint still requires about $766 million of second-half net new ARR. Third-quarter revenue is $1,523.2 million to $1,529.2 million. Full-year revenue is $5,991.1 million to $6,011.1 million, midpoint $6,001.1 million. Full-year non-GAAP operating income is $1,497.2 million to $1,508.4 million, midpoint $1,502.8 million, or 25.0% of that revenue midpoint. Non-GAAP diluted EPS is $1.25 to $1.26 on 1,044 million shares. July’s actual diluted share count was 1,044.469 million. Basic Class A shares were 1,023.845 million at 31 July.
Customers on six, seven and eight or more modules were 51%, 35% and 26% of the base. SGNL, bought on 20 February 2026, brought $561.1 million of goodwill and $87.9 million of developed technology. In July the company agreed to buy XM Cyber’s technology assets for $145.0 million of cash and Class A stock, plus more stock set at closing. The 10-Q expects that close in the second half of fiscal 2027, subject to conditions. At this market value, $145 million does not move the per-share math.
The Street is a buy tape with an average target under the price. S&P Global on StockAnalysis, checked 5 October and updated 2 October, shows an average of $235.67, a median of $245, a low of $132 and a high of $300. TipRanks’ lines on that page: Shaul Eyal at TD Cowen, buy, $250 to $280 on 2 October; Meta Marshall at Morgan Stanley, buy, $238 to $254 on 21 September; Todd Weller, CFA, at Stephens, buy, $260 to $280 on 18 September; Tal Liani at Bank of America Securities, hold, $230 to $260 on 18 September; Peter Weed at Bernstein, hold, $119 to $132 on 17 September. September was 30 strong buy, 10 buy, 12 hold and one sell. Holds, including Bernstein at $132, are why a buy consensus and a below-market average can both be true. FinanceFeeds wrote on 14 September about Kurtz rejecting an AI-slowdown case as the shares jumped and chips sold off. That is context, not an input to $359 or $118.
Valuation: how $359 and $118 are built
Do not use the trailing earnings multiple. StockAnalysis’ statistics page shows a $277.10 billion market cap, a $272.90 billion enterprise value and a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 6,158.38 next to the 2 October close. The overview page shows $45 million of trailing net income. The company’s fiscal 2027 non-GAAP EPS midpoint is $1.255, and $270.04 divided by $1.255 is 215 times. The cases below use ARR, net cash and shares.
ARR input: ($6,603.0 million + $6,611.9 million) / 2 = $6,607.45 million. Net cash: $5,013.847 million of cash minus $746.216 million of long-term debt = $4,267.631 million. Current liabilities show no short-term borrowings. Share count: 1,044 million diluted shares in the fiscal 2027 EPS outlook. Price = (multiple × $6,607.45 million + $4,267.631 million) / 1,044 million.
At $270.04, diluted equity value is 270.04 × 1,044 = $281,921.8 million. Enterprise value, after net cash, is $277,654.1 million. That is 42.0 times the fiscal 2027 ARR midpoint, 47.5 times ARR already on the books, and 46.3 times the $6,001.1 million revenue midpoint. The bull case does not call 42 times cheap. It is what a further one-third expansion would be worth.
At 56 times, enterprise value is $370,017.2 million, equity value is $374,284.8 million, and the price is $358.51, rounded to $359. That is 32.9% above the close. It assumes Flex’s 101% growth and the identity deals keep a scarcity premium the $300 high target does not underwrite. At the rounded $359, the enterprise value is about 61.7 times guided fiscal 2027 sales. If that sales multiple is unacceptable, $359 is the wrong case, and the sheet is telling you so.
At 37 times, enterprise value is $244,475.7 million, equity value is $248,743.3 million, and the price is $238.26, rounded to $238, or 11.9% under the close. Five turns off 42.0 times do the damage. Net cash stops the price falling as far as the multiple. $238 lands between the $235.67 average and the $245 median. The average was not typed into the formula.
At 18 times, enterprise value is $118,934.1 million, equity value is $123,201.7 million, and the price is $118.01, rounded to $118, or 56.3% under the close. That is not a liquidation multiple. ARR is still guided to grow, and the non-GAAP operating margin at the two midpoints is 25%. It is the mark if the AI-identity scarcity premium leaves. On sales it is 19.8 times the revenue midpoint, and it sits under Bernstein’s $132. Whether AI supports software multiples or compresses them is the same question on another stock, and it is what chooses 37 times or 18.
| Case | Price | Vs $270.04 close | Multiple | Assumption |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $359 | +32.9% | 56x FY27 ending ARR | The 42.0x forward multiple expands by one third. ARR hits the $6,607.45 million midpoint. |
| Base | $238 | −11.9% | 37x FY27 ending ARR | Five turns of compression. The guide is met and the premium stops rising. |
| Bear | $118 | −56.3% | 18x FY27 ending ARR | The scarcity premium comes out. Harsher than Bernstein’s $132. Catalyst is a guide miss or a quantified legal loss. |
Two checks sit beside the table. Basic Class A shares were 1,023.845 million. Swap that count in for 1,044 million and each case rises about 2.0%, to roughly $366, $243 and $120. Purchase commitments past one year were $4,141.5 million at 31 July, plus $2.9 billion signed later through fiscal 2034. The counterparty is unnamed. About $7.04 billion against $377.4 million of quarterly free cash flow is a capacity bill, not a hole in the $5.01 billion of cash.
Regulatory tension
The open item is in Note 11, not in a hypothetical. The company has received Justice Department and SEC requests on revenue recognition, ARR reporting for certain customers, the July 19 Incident and related matters, and says it is cooperating. A loss is “reasonably possible,” and no amount or range can be estimated. An ARR multiple is only as sturdy as the ARR. An inquiry into how ARR is booked goes to the numerator of the 42.0 times math. No resolution is assumed.
The July 19 Incident is the 19 July 2024 Falcon update that crashed certain Windows systems. Two years on, the 10-Q still leads its risk factors with it. The accrual was $13.1 million at 31 July 2026, against $15.5 million at 31 January, or 0.26% of cash. The July quarter recorded a $14.5 million net recovery, against a $35.7 million net cost a year earlier. Insurance, the filing says, will not cover every cost. The range, once it exists, is the multiple event. The accrual is not.
The docket splits. Passenger class claims were dismissed, the Fifth Circuit affirmed on 20 May 2026, and rehearing was denied on 15 June 2026. Several derivative suits were dismissed in 2026. Delta Air Lines’ case, filed in Fulton County on 25 October 2024, survived in part: a motion to dismiss was granted in part and denied in part on 16 May 2025, and discovery is ongoing.FinanceFeeds reported on 19 July 2024 that broker platforms failed while Windows machines crashed. That was the outage day. It does not size today’s claim.
The next incident has a rule already. The SEC’s 26 July 2023 adopting release requires an Item 1.05 Form 8-K once a cyber incident is judged material, generally within four business days, and adds Regulation S-K Item 106. The Attorney General can delay a filing for national security or public safety. CrowdStrike both sells those controls and has already lived through a material incident. The DOJ and SEC requests are the nearer issue. The earnings release still lists the July 19 Incident first among the factors that could break the guide.
What happens next
Three dates, none of them a trading instruction.
The quarter ends 31 October 2026. Ending ARR is guided to $6,184.4 million–$6,188.4 million, a $4 million band. Landing inside it confirms cadence. It does not earn 56 times. The year-ago third-quarter 8-K was filed on 2 December 2025, so the comparable window is late November into early December unless the company sets another date. Prediction: inside the band, $359 still depends on the multiple. Under $6,184.4 million, $359 comes off until the guide is rebuilt.
The year ends 31 January 2027. The bull case uses the $6,607.45 million midpoint. The guide floor is $6,603.0 million. Fiscal 2026 results were on an 8-K dated 3 March 2026, the comparable slot unless management moves it. Prediction: ARR below $6,603.0 million deletes the bull case’s operating input, and the argument becomes how far 42 times compresses. XM Cyber is expected in the second half of fiscal 2027, subject to conditions. At $145 million plus unspecified stock, it does not change the per-share math.
Note 11 gives the legal file no hearing date. Prediction: the $5.01 billion cash balance is not the first casualty. A disclosed loss range on the DOJ or SEC inquiry, or a Delta result that is no longer “not reasonably estimable,” hits 42 times before it hits liquidity. Until that range exists, $118 is the stress price of an 18-times multiple, not a forecast of a fine.
This is market analysis for brokers and institutional readers, not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
FAQ
What is the $359 CrowdStrike bull case?
It is a model price, not a broker target. Multiply the fiscal 2027 ARR midpoint of $6,607.45 million by 56, add $4,267.631 million of net cash, and divide by 1,044 million diluted shares. Unrounded, that is $358.51, rounded to $359, or 32.9% above the $270.04 close on 2 October 2026. The multiple is a one-third expansion from the 42.0 times already in the close. The high target on the StockAnalysis page checked for this note was $300.
What is the $118 bear case?
Same ARR, same net cash, same 1,044 million shares, and an 18-times multiple. Unrounded, that is $118.01, rounded to $118, or 56.3% under the 2 October close, about 19.8 times guided revenue. It assumes the scarcity premium leaves, not that growth stops. Bernstein’s Peter Weed was at $132 on 17 September 2026, so this bear case is harsher than the low published target. It is a stress price, not an estimate of a fine.
Why is the stock above the average analyst target?
Price and target are different objects. S&P Global’s average of 53 targets was $235.67 on StockAnalysis’ 2 October 2026 update, 12.73% under the $270.04 close. The median was $245 and the high was $300. September still showed 40 buys against 12 holds and one sell, with TD Cowen and Stephens at $280. Holds, including Bernstein at $132, pull the average below a market that is already paying 42 times management’s year-end ARR midpoint.
What did management guide?
For the year ending 31 January 2027, ending ARR is $6,603.0 million to $6,611.9 million and net-new ARR growth is 34% at the midpoint, up 630 basis points. Revenue is $5,991.1 million to $6,011.1 million. Non-GAAP EPS is $1.25 to $1.26 on 1,044 million shares, with non-GAAP operating income of $1,497.2 million to $1,508.4 million. Third-quarter ending ARR is $6,184.4 million to $6,188.4 million. All of that is from the 26 August 2026 release.
Which regulatory issues are open?
The 27 August 2026 10-Q says the Justice Department and the SEC have asked about revenue recognition, ARR reporting for some customers, and the 19 July 2024 Falcon update. A loss is reasonably possible and not estimable, so no range is invented here. The July 19 accrual was $13.1 million, and Delta’s Georgia case is in discovery. SEC rules from 26 July 2023 also require an Item 1.05 8-K, generally within four business days of a materiality decision.
Did the stock split change these prices?
No. The cases are in post-split dollars. The four-for-one Class A dividend was announced on 3 June 2026 and paid after the close on 1 July to holders of record on 25 June. The 10-Q restates share counts, and Nasdaq closes do not fall 75% that week, so the chart matches the $270.04 close. The 24 February low close of $87.56 was about $350 before the split. Do not compare today’s price with an unadjusted spring screenshot.